The 2011 4 Quarters Bracket Entry, West Region

(See previous post for East Region picks.)

So, in this region, we have the defending champs, a 2-seed who most casual/uninformed college hoop observers think is overrated and has been all season, a 3-seed that ran the New York City Marathon known as the Big East Tournament, and a 4 who's everyone's pick to get poleaxed in the first round.

Some of those things may actually be true. Here's my take:

First Round:
#1 Duke v. #16 Hampton: Only way Duke gets dropped is if they stay at a Hampton Inn and some chicanery ensues, like a mysterious bedbug outbreak confined to only the Duke rooms. Duke by (# of times "bitch" was said in the Fab 5 documentary times 10).

#8 Michigan v. #9 Tennessee: Bruce Pearl knew that he had the support of his university, no matter what else was swirling around him. Now he doesn't even seem to have that. Luckily, he got a perfect draw, against a Michigan team that lacks size or experience. Brian Williams and Tobias Harris can have decent games here, and if Scotty Hopson's hot, this one might run away from the maize and blue quite early. UT by 10.

#5 Arizona v. #12 Memphis: Memphis hasn't yet learned something that Tennessee has: "We're not a good three-point shooting team, so maybe we should cut down on shooting threes." Their biggest hope is to hit the defensive glass and get out in transition, but their opponents' offensive rebounding percentage ranks in the 260's nationally. Add to that the fact that Arizona does hit their shots, and this one's got blowout potential. Arizona by 14.

#4 Texas v. #13 Oakland: Oakland would be good if they could just find a quarterback. Wait, what? Oh, sorry, not the Raiders. This Oakland does have a pretty decent QB in guard Reggie Hamilton and a stud center in Keith Benson. Texas is the #1 eFG defense team in the nation, according to Pomeroy. Oakland is #3 in eFG offense. That's impressive, because it seems like the Oakland playbook either has "drop it in to Benson" or "shoot threes" on every page. Texas isn't so much a perimeter team, but here, they may have to be. Otherwise, Benson may rack a triple-double off of swatting Tristan Thompson and Gary Johnson's inside attempts. Many want to write off Texas because of some nebulous "Rick Barnes factor," but the guy's been to a Final Four, two Elite Eights, and two Sweet 16's, so let's stop pretending he fell off some turnip truck. This one will be a war, but... Texas by 3.

#6 Cincinnati v. #11 Missouri: This one comes down to Missouri's offensive execution (#27 in efficiency) against Cincy's defensive execution (#16). Mizzou's not coming in on a high note, losing four of their last five and averaging only 66 points in those losses. Of course, the last time we saw the Bearcats, they were dropping a 38-point loss to Notre Dame. This game promises to be tight, and could come down to free throws. Missouri hits 73.6% of theirs, Cincy only 66.6%. So... Missouri by 2.

#3 Connecticut v. #14 Bucknell: Early in the season, UConn looked like a one-man team. But, to survive in the Big East, Kemba Walker's sidekicks had to grow up fast. Now, an overmatched Bucknell team has to sit back and observe what guys like Alex Oriakhi, Shabazz Napier, and Jeremy Lamb have learned, especially through the kiln that was the five-game Bataan Death March in MSG last week. UConn by 25.

#7 Temple v. #10 Penn State: I love Talor Battle, but he can only do so much. He's brought it against some solid competition, but it seems that the stronger the opponent, the less support Battle gets. Temple's seemingly been a strong defensive team since Jesus was a sophomore, and this season, they're in the top 25 in two-point FG defense. So, they have quite enough horses to contain the Lions. Temple by 12.

#2 San Diego State v. #15 Northern Colorado: Devon Beitzel can score in bunches (21.4 ppg this season, with percentages of .583-.904-.384 on twos, FT's, and threes), and of the other seven players in NCU's rotation, five of them stand 6'7" or 6'8". Unfortunately for them, they're running into a great defensive team with one of the most athletic front lines in the country. Kawhi Leonard, Malcolm Thomas, and Billy White are hard to contain, especially with a steady point guard like D.J. Gay. Beitzel could keep this thing interesting, but the Aztecs are legit, whether you want to believe it or not. SDSU by 15.

Second Round:
#1 Duke v. #9 Tennessee: UT is a team that occasionally doesn't seem like it has its head on straight. Duke is a team that almost always seems in control. Tennessee may be able to control the glass, but can they make Nolan Smith, Kyle Singler, and Seth Curry all miss? Not sure I like those odds. Duke by 9.

#5 Arizona v. #4 Texas: It seems like this might be a fun game, but here's the thing: these are two of the top 50 teams in America in free throw rate. They like to draw contact and get to the line. Unfortunately for Texas, the Cats are 10% better. Unlike Tristan Thompson, a 48.6% FT shooter, Derrick Williams can live on and-ones all night long (74.4% FT). Arizona by 6.

#11 Missouri v. #3 UConn: Kemba's crew is just streaky enough to make this a very high-scoring game against the running Tigers. What we have to wonder is: how much is left in their legs after that conference tournament slog? If Missouri can keep out of foul trouble (they're 240th in opponents' FT rate), I think they've got a chance to pull this one. Mizzou by 7.

#7 Temple v. #2 San Diego State: This game, however, is very unlikely to be high-scoring. These are strong defensive teams who don't get to the line, don't put opponents on the line, and aren't tremendous when they do. Temple has a surprising array of scorers, with five guys averaging over 10 points per game. They may even have the best player on the court in Lavoy Allen. But, I like Leonard and Thomas to be able to keep Allen from putting his team on his shoulders. Either way, this one can be a great game. SDSU by 3.

Sweet 16:
#1 Duke v. #5 Arizona: Derrick Williams has to contend with both Plumlee brothers and Ryan Kelly in his grill all night. Between that size and the efficiency of Nolan Smith, the Cats would have to play a perfect game and someone else would have to pick up Williams' slack. Could happen, but it's pretty unlikely. Duke by 8.

#11 Missouri v. #2 San Diego State: Who can dictate tempo? In this one, it's easy to see Missouri getting overanxious and putting themselves in foul trouble. Just like against UConn, if they don't, it could be a great game. If not... SDSU by 6.

Final:
#1 Duke v. #2 San Diego State: Duke's biggest issue is that they can get three-happy. If SD State can keep hands in the faces of Curry, Smith, and Andre Dawkins, this will be an ugly game, but that's the kind of game the Aztecs need. I see SDSU as legit, so... SDSU by 5.

That's two down. San Diego State v. Ohio State in one semifinal. Who's next?

4 Quarters Radio Episode 11: 1st Half

Click to Play

March 30's first half starts off with a repeat appearance from Adam Biggers of the Flint (Mich.) Journal discussing Michigan State's Final Four prospects...and also being vaguely aware that there are three other teams there, too. From there, Scott steers the rapidly careening 4Q train from sporting philosophy (do you BIRG and CORF?) to tangentially sports-related pornography. Tall Russians and women get shouts out in Whodaman, as well. Excised music: "Yes" by LMFAO.

One Last Run For No. 1: Can Purdue Sneak Back Onto the Top Line?

While writers, bloggers, and ESPN analysts sprinted to grab the shovels and throw dirt on the instantly rotting corpse that is a Robbie Hummel-less Purdue Boilermaker basketball team, they were already handing over the Boilers' expected No. 1 NCAA Tournament seed to anyone they could find.

Duke, Kansas State, Ohio State, and now even Purdue's New Year's Day pimp-smack victims, West Virginia, are getting love as potential No. 1 seeds.  However, each of those teams is not without their flaws in their own right, and are their bodies of work that much superior to Purdue's?  Let's examine, starting with the Boilers as a point of comparison.

Purdue: 26-4, RPI No. 11, 51st-ranked Strength of Schedule, 6-3 v. RPI Top 50
The Boilers' three Top 50 losses were to Ohio State, Michigan State, and Wisconsin, all of which they had either already beaten or proceeded to avenge later.  Just saying.

Duke: 26-5, RPI No. 2, 7th-ranked SoS, 8-4 v. RPI Top 50
Duke just dropped a game last Wednesday to a Maryland team that was merely .500 (7-7) against the RPI's Top 100. The Terps are playing like their shoes are on fire right now, and that probably works in Duke's favor. Barring a huge collapse in the ACC Tournament, Duke's probably got the No. 1 locked up.

On examining their losses, though, all things are pretty equal between the Devils and the Boilers. They both have a weak loss, Purdue to Northwestern and Duke to N.C. State.  Duke's five losses came to teams that were a combined 41-41 against the RPI's Top 100.  Purdue's four losses came to teams who were 28-27 against the Top 100.  Duke's own RPI and SoS are large advantages, but if it's boiled down to who each team played, there's very little difference.

If Wake Forest or Virginia Tech can pull a shocker in the ACC semifinal on Saturday, Duke could very well get knocked out of the top seed discussion for good.  Except for when Dickie (Dookie?) V's involved.  Coach K's boys could lose to St. Catherine's School for the Blind, Crippled, and Crazy, and Vitale would still spend the day talking about how big a disadvantage the Devils were at with seeing-eye dogs allowed on the court.

Kansas State: 24-6, No. 6 RPI, 5th-ranked SoS, 6-4 v. RPI Top 50
A phoned-in loss like the one to Iowa State on Saturday is exactly the type that sends a team's hopes of a No. 1 seed swirling immediately. As well it should. Iowa State was 3-16 against the RPI's Top 150 coming into that game. Compare that to Northwestern's 8-8 mark and tell me which is the worse loss.

In total, KSU's losses were a combined 35-38 against the Top 100.  And before anyone jumps on how much Iowa State's 3-13 brought that record down, Kansas's 13-3 evens that right out.

If Purdue was to lose the top line to any of these teams, I think K-State would be the one with which I would have had the least problem, at least before last Saturday.  The Wildcats are a great team, period.  I'll have to see a hellish regional in front of them before I remove them from Final Four consideration.

They had back-to-back 15-point wins in December over Xavier and UNLV, and took Kansas to overtime in their first meeting.  I'm not disputing their talent.

However, for all the talk about resumes and body of work that dominates February and March in college basketball, there's not a ton that differentiates K-State from Purdue, at least not to the point that the 'Cats are still getting top-seed buzz and Purdue is said to be fighting for No. 2-seed table scraps.

K-State's already lost once to Oklahoma State (a chic tourney sleeper, by the way), and that appears to be the matchup we can expect in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 Tournament this Thursday.  OSU's going to come in motivated.  Will KSU?

Ohio State: 24-7, No. 29 RPI, 66th-ranked SoS, 8-6 v. RPI Top 100
This is where the RPI junkies run and hide.  If you subscribe to the RPI as the end-all-be-all of college basketball power rankings, and you're seriously trying to advocate the Buckeyes as a No. 1 seed, you're a hypocrite.

The Buckeyes have a No. 1-seed player in Evan Turner, who should be the favorite for National Player of the Year. (Sorry, John Wall apologists, but Turner does both Wall's job AND Patrick Patterson's.  Deal with it.)

However, if you did the blind taste test that ESPN's so fond of during their games, and put up Purdue's resume next to Ohio State's with no names or injuries attached, I doubt many would claim OSU's as superior.

The Buckeyes' losses were solid, with opponents going 55-49 against the RPI Top 100...but that's buoyed heavily by the last two, West Virginia's 15-6 and Purdue's 12-3.  Leave out those two losses, and the Bucks' ledger drops to 28-40.

Okay, in fairness, two of the losses came without Evan Turner.  The opponents who beat a full-strength Buckeye team went 43-33 against the Top 100.  Still good.  But there's still that loss to a very iffy Minnesota team (4-7 against the Top 100, if you're wondering...worse than Northwestern).

By the time the Buckeyes get started in the Big Ten Tournament on Friday, it will have been 10 days since they last played a game.  Luckily for them, it'll be either Michigan or Iowa across the court from them to provide a nice tuneup.  Either Wisconsin or Illinois awaits in the semis, and we could even see a possible head-to-head showdown with the Boilers in the final.

If Ohio State dominates the tournament, fine.  Hand them a No. 1.  But don't insult everyone's intelligence by crying RPI all season and then ignoring that very large discrepancy just to cut a depleted team's resume down to size.

West Virginia: 24-6, No. 5 RPI, 2nd-ranked SoS, 15-6 v. RPI Top 100
I'd love to just say that 77-62 doesn't lie.  Except, in this case, it does.

I'm not nearly Homer Fanboy enough to claim that that game goes down exactly the same without Robbie Hummel in the lineup.

WVU has a great resume, and they don't have a bad loss.  At this point, their worst loss was to UConn.  Their six losses came to teams that were a combined 74-37 against the RPI Top 100.

Really, it's hard to object to their claim on a No. 1 except on aesthetic grounds.  The Mountaineers can out-athlete anyone, but a tournament run often comes down to size and/or shooting, and WVU doesn't have a ton of either.  It's always possible that DaSean Butler can shoot them right out of a game (see combined 8-for-42 against Notre Dame, Villanova, and UConn).

It's hard to see them having a huge problem with Louisville, Cincinnati, or Rutgers in the Big East quarters, but the semis may hold Pitt or Notre Dame, with their combined 2-1 record against the 'Neers.  A loss there should end the talk about WVU on the top line.  A win over either of those two, however, would probably lock up the top line for Bob Huggins' team, and deservedly so.

Purdue still owned them on New Year's Day, though.

I understand that all of this is totally moot if Purdue doesn't win the Big Ten Tournament.  And, to be honest, they'll have to rack major style points in doing so.  If they beat, say, Indiana, Minnesota, and Illinois to win the thing, they'll get no credit for proving themselves against Ohio State or Michigan State or Wisconsin sans Hummel.

The sad part is, that's probably a fair judgment.  To be a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, a team has to prove they can go out and beat anyone at any time on anyone's court.  As presently constituted, Purdue hasn't done that.  Wins over Indiana and Penn State just won't cut it.

Every Purdue fan has to need Purdue to prove themselves against the big boys all over again.  If they do, however, and all these other stars fall into alignment, a No. 1 seed shouldn't be out of reach...even if it probably already is.