Everyone is expected to assemble non-conference itineraries consisting of teams with combined three-year RPI averages of 150 or better. Coaches don't like the idea.
As I've written in MTSU Sidelines, this requirement is not an impossible one, but it might be somewhat unreasonable.
Three of the Belt's basketball-playing members managed to actually schedule strongly enough this season to satisfy the league mandate. Most of the rest came fairly close, and the other two just didn't seem to care.
For the full numbers, click here. If you're the patient sort, read on.
All rankings courtesy of RealTimeRPI.com. Teams scheduled to compete in early-season tournaments have only their currently-confirmed first-round opponents included in their averages.
2010-11 Sun Belt RPI Averages:
1. Western Kentucky -- 129.91
2. Troy -- 133.61
3. Florida Atlantic -- 141.28
4. Arkansas-Little Rock -- 156.09
5. FIU -- 160.56
6. Louisiana-Monroe -- 162.61
7. Denver -- 167.23
8. Louisiana-Lafayette -- 170.04
9. Arkansas State -- 172.5
10. South Alabama -- 173.52
11. MTSU -- 186.25
12. North Texas -- 190.73
Each team has a few "money games," which are denoted in green on the spreadsheet linked above. Those are games against teams with a Top-100 average over the past three seasons.
Teams also have "bottom-feeder" games, shown in red. Those games are against teams whose averages are lower than #250.
Let's analyze a little deeper.
1. Western Kentucky -- 129.91
Money games: Louisville (3-year RPI average: 17), Memphis (21), Vanderbilt (45), Minnesota (67), South Carolina (96)
Bottom-feeders: Florida Gulf Coast (308), Alabama A&M (321)
--Western is a team that won three Tournament games between 2008 and 2009, so they're interested in seeing if they can punch in the heavyweight classes. Not included in the money games: the always-dangerous Murray State, who ranked #57 last season in the RPI and stunned Vanderbilt in the first round.
2. Troy -- 133.61
Money games: Utah State (43), UAB (47), Mississippi State (51)
Bottom-feeders: Georgia State (255), Idaho State (256)
--Three SBC schools put UAB on the schedules this season, offering the best kind of boost: a winnable game. Of course, UAB looked vulnerable last season, too, and all they did was go 25-9. Utah State was a hip upset pick going into last year's Tournament, but got done pretty convincingly by Texas A&M. Most Sun Belt teams would get beaten even worse by A&M. Mississippi State is beatable without Dee Bost and Renardo Sidney.
3. Florida Atlantic -- 141.28
Money games: Siena (38), Mississippi State (51), Florida (55), George Mason (90)
Bottom-feeders: UC Davis (271)
--Mike Jarvis scheduled a lot of games against East Coast schools, and didn't try to prey on weak sisters, either. UC-Davis and Manhattan are the only two opponents with three-year averages outside the top 200. Two SEC opponents bring in a little cash. Siena has a recent reputation as a potential Tournament upset special (even if Purdue did shut them down, thankyaverymuch), but lost key pieces this season, including coach Fran McCaffery.
4. Arkansas-Little Rock -- 156.09
Money games: Illinois State (53), Ole Miss (61), Tulsa (72), Akron (89)
Bottom-feeders: Stetson (269), Rice (278)
--Not quite under the 150 average, but this is the kind of schedule a Sun Belt team should try to assemble: one big-conference team stuck in the middle of several well-respected mid-majors. What did them in was sneaking in one just under the "bottom-feeder" wire, that being SMU and their 247 average. UALR is one of two teams whose opponents were better last season than either of the previous two.
5. FIU -- 160.56
Money games: Louisville (17), Florida State (39)
Bottom-feeders: Utah Valley (275), Florida A&M (292)
--Florida State actually comes to Miami for their game. Isiah Thomas got a couple of heavy hitters lined up, and there are also a couple of decent low-major games, with both Marshall and Sam Houston State ranking in last year's top 70.
6. Louisiana-Monroe -- 162.61
Money games: Illinois State (53), Kent State (70), UTEP (79), Texas Tech (87), Stephen F. Austin (97)
Bottom-feeders: Centenary (297), Jacksonville State (300)
--Monroe was the other team (with UALR) whose opponents' combined average last season was their best of the last three. Monroe was also the only team other than Western Kentucky to schedule five money games. So why the lower average? They've scheduled a team in only their second season in Division I (South Dakota, ranked #216 last year), a Big Ten team who's trying to redefine futility (Iowa, 173 average including #210 last year), and a pair of teams near #300. Louisiana Tech's 193 average didn't help, but imagine where it'd be without last season's #78 (24-11 record).
7. Denver -- 167.23
Money games: Utah State (43), St. Mary's (43)
Bottom-feeders: Alcorn State (341)
--Seriously, any other SWAC team would have helped the average. Alcorn's been one of the bottom ten teams in the nation for the last three years. Meanwhile, St. Mary's is still tough, despite the loss of bulldozer Omar Samhan. Otherwise, Denver scheduled quite strongly. Only Alcorn, Northern Colorado (223), and Arkansas-Pine Bluff (247) even carry averages outside the top 200.
8. Louisiana-Lafayette -- 170.04
Money games: Creighton (68), Houston (92), Cleveland State (94), New Mexico State (99)
Bottom-feeders: McNeese State (281), Centenary (297)
--The money games here are a bit deceiving. Of the four, New Mexico State is the only one that was in last season's top 100. Creighton had won 20+ games for 11 straight years before last season's 18-16 slump. Cleveland State's #165 rank last year was 100 spots lower than where they were either of the previous two. Also, two middle of the road games didn't help the average. Tulane's 209 average includes last year's #282. Lamar averages 219, but was #292 last season. The Cajuns' opponents averaged an RPI of 204 last year, by far the worst single-season figure of any SBC team's schedule.
9. Arkansas State -- 172.5
Money games: Memphis (21), Ole Miss (61)
Bottom-feeders: Savannah State (274), SE Missouri (314)
--ASU could help the average immensely with a good showing at the NIT Season Tip-Off, where a win over Missouri State (141 average) could lead to a game against either Belmont (112) or the big dog, Tennessee (13). But let's not get ahead of ourselves. John Brady is the most vocal against the return of the "150 rule," and a schedule like this makes it easy to see why. Memphis and Ole Miss don't quite pay for the likes of Savannah State, SEMO, Alabama State (218), and Lamar (219). Good news: they do have a Georgia team showing signs of improvement over the squad that bumbled their way to a SEC Tournament title and an embarrassing-for-the-SEC #14 seed in 2008. Bad news: there are THREE non-Division I games on the schedule, and those will have to go away next season. No wonder Brady's pissed.
10. South Alabama -- 173.52
Money games: Louisville (17), UAB (47)
Bottom-feeders: Houston Baptist (320), Alcorn State (341)
--There's Alcorn again. If the Belt teams are going to pull 150 averages, they need to be looking in the Big Ten basement (like ULM did) and the SEC basement (like WKU did), not the SWAC basement. They'd also be well-advised to avoid the Great West altogether. Meanwhile, Rick Pitino and Mike Davis are gladly paying for wins. Ronnie Arrow's team will be facing a pair of SEC teams, Alabama (107) and LSU (144). Let's not pat him on the back too hard, though: LSU sandwiched a 27-win season between a pair of campaigns that totaled 24. The 27 seems to be much more the exception.
11. MTSU -- 186.25
Money games: Tennessee (13), Vanderbilt (45), UAB (47)
Botton-feeders: Campbell (250), Samford (251), Furman (304), Houston Baptist (320), SIU-Edwardsville (322)
--Only two Sun Belt teams scheduled more than two bottom-feeder games. Guess where the other one ranked? MTSU beat writer/friend of 4 Quarters Radio Adam Sparks claims here that "MTSU has touted one of the league's strongest non-conference schedules for years." Apparently, this is MTSU taking a year off? Okay, great, Tennessee, Vandy, UAB, and Auburn (123) are lined up, with UAB and Vandy even coming to Murphy Center. For that matter, even Belmont (112) is a decent game and a potential local rivalry. All that said, it's night and day with the Blue Raider schedule. Aside from the five stinkers above, there's also two games against Evansville (199) and one with Tennessee State (just under the wire at 248). Some are fond of the phrase "don't piss on my head and tell me it's raining." In this case, it's "don't schedule the dregs of the Southern Conference and tell me it's a strong slate." Making the rounds of Tennessee and Alabama aren't quite enough lipstick to put on this pig.
12. North Texas -- 190.73
Money games: Kansas (5), Texas Tech (87)
Bottom-feeders: Texas State (254), Rice (278), Texas Southern (290), Grambling State (336)
--Kansas is by far the biggest gun anyone's attempting to face in the Belt this season. But even the Jayhawks don't balance the Little Sisters of the Poor tour that the Mean Green are taking around Texas this season. Only two of UNT's opponents outside of KU and Tech have had a season ranked inside the top 140 over the past three: Sam Houston State (#100 in 2008 and #70 in 2010) and LSU (the aforementioned 2009 campaign, where they ranked #37). Even Jackson State, expected to run the SWAC this season, only sports a 217 average. Could be worse, though. At least it's not Alcorn.
On last week's episode of 4 Quarters (podcast here), Sporting News college hoops columnist Mike DeCourcy got all kinds of fired up about these new guidelines. His key assertion was that Rule #1 of having a good RPI was "WIN GAMES!" With some of the non-conference schedules that have been put together this season, Sun Belt teams shouldn't have a ton of trouble doing that.
But next season, when the "150 rule" makes its highly dreaded return, will the SBC be able to satisfy the guidelines and still win games? And what happens when they don't? Going 6-8 because you had to schedule Top 25 heavyweights to pay for the occasional CAA or OVC opponent isn't exactly a great recipe for multiple NCAA spots.
We'll see how the results look this season, and then Sun Belt observers (not to mention athletic directors and coaches) will probably need to get good and drunk.
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